Ugh. Below .500 last week. Meaning we're 64-60-6. Is an 8-2 finish to the season to make it 72-62-6 possible? Let's find out.
Bowling Green (-13.5) at Northern Illinois, 8 p.m. ET FRIDAY: I know I said on the podcast that I had a feeling Northern Illinois could keep this close, but I think that feeling is gone. This is likely Dino Babers' last game as coach of Bowling Green (Syracuse looms as a possibility) and he'll pull out all the stops. Plus, NIU is starting a third-string quarterback who is unfortunately not the offspring of NFL great Jay Fiedler. Falcon fast.
Texas at Baylor (-20.5), Noon ET: Two of Texas' seven losses have been blowouts. They've also been to the teams closest to Baylor in the polls (Notre Dame and TCU). But Baylor is starting third-string quarterback Chris Johnson. Notre Dame had Malik Zaire and TCU had Trevone Boykin. We're sticking with the Bears because all Baylor has to do is stop the Texas run game.
Southern Miss at Western Kentucky (-8), Noon ET: A third-straight favorite? Why not. The Hilltoppers are at home for the Conference-USA title game and Brandon Doughty has hit 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns for the second-straight season. The O/U on this game is 74.5 thanks to the prowess of Southern Miss QB Nick Mullens. If you're bored by Baylor and Texas, watch this game.
New Mexico State (PICK) at Louisiana-Monroe, 3 p.m. ET: The Aggies have three wins; two have come on the road. That's a win total three-times ULM's. The Warhawks have only beaten Nicholls State in 2015, though Monroe only lost by two to Hawaii last week. We're going with NMSU. When it's the final week of the season, it's time to go out in a Sun Belt of glory.
Florida vs. Alabama (-18), 4 p.m. ET: How can the Gators keep this one close? This is setting up for a bit of a surprise (just a hunch), but Alabama pulls away late. If the Tide are dominant and Clemson struggles, it's not crazy to think the Tide would leapfrog Clemson in the College Football Playoff rankings. How many carries will Derrick Henry get? If he tops 200 yards again, he may win himself the Heisman.
West Virginia at Kansas State (OVER 57.5): The Wildcats are playing for bowl eligibility but are likely going to a bowl at either 5-7 or 6-6. The line of 5.5 in West Virginia's favor is about right. Given this is the Big 12, we're betting on a shootout.
Appalachian State at South Alabama (+18), 7:30 p.m. ET: We need more Sun Belt. The USA Jaguars need a win to get to a bowl game. We've been saying this for three weeks now; consecutive losses to Georgia State and Georgia Southern have kept the Jags on the precipice. We're not sure USA gets to 6-6 against 9-2 App. State, but this will at least be close.
Stanford (-4.5) vs. USC, 7:45 p.m. ET: Stanford's more than 5 points better than USC, right? The Trojans are a roller coaster and it's hard to see it going much higher after the win against UCLA last week. Stanford is possibly, maybe, OK probably not in the College Football Playoff with a win. Christian McCaffrey is the best player on the field and is the difference.
North Carolina vs. Clemson (OVER 67.5), 8 p.m. ET: This game is a referendum on Gene Chizik and the North Carolina defense. Carolina's offense is perhaps the best in the country over the past six weeks. The Tar Heel defense needs to step up to that level to contain Clemson. The Tigers let South Carolina score 30+ last week, so this one could be a shootout.
Michigan State at Iowa (UNDER 51), 8 p.m. ET: We like the Spartans straight-up in this CFP play-in game. Michigan State's hopes hinge on a healthy Conner Cook. And can Iowa's gameplan be replicated against the best opponent its seen all season? We have 20-17 stuck in our heads and no, we're not stereotyping the Big Ten with that. Promise.
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LOCKS OF THE WEEK:
Nick Bromberg (6-7) Georgia State (+21) at Georgia Southern, 2 p.m. ET: The Panthers are improving. Can they stop the option? They will just enough to cover the line.
Sam Cooper (4-8-1) Michigan State (-3.5) vs. Iowa: Iowa deserves more credit than it has gotten nationally for going undefeated, but the Hawkeyes simply haven’t played a team as good as Michigan State. The Spartans are playing with supreme confidence coming off their huge win over Ohio State in Columbus a few weeks ago. Iowa RB Jordan Canzeri is really good, but can you count on C.J. Beathard to beat Michigan State through the air? I don’t think so. It’ll be close, but MSU will get the job done and seal up a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Graham Watson (4-8-1): San Diego State (-6.5) vs. Air Force, 7:30 p.m. ET: The Aztecs have won eight in a row and have been one of the most balanced offenses in the Mountain West during that span. Air Force also was hot until it ran into a New Mexico team, which exposed some weaknesses in the AFA defense. The Aztecs are trying to establish themselves as the power of the Mountain West and the only way to do that is to win this conference title. I think they win this game by two touchdowns.
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
