Armed Forces Bowl
California (7-5) vs. Air Force (8-5)
Fort Worth, Texas
Dec. 29, 2015
There has been no shortage of offense in the first week of bowl games. Don’t expect that to change in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Cal and Air Force are both capable of putting up big yardage, but do so in different ways.
For Cal, it begins and ends with star quarterback Jared Goff. Goff, a junior, is considered a top NFL prospect, so this could be his final game with the Golden Bears. Goff threw for 4,252 yards and 37 touchdowns this season, both school records, and also broke several records set by current Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
He finished off the 2015 regular season in a big way with 542 yards (another school record) and five touchdowns in a 48-46 win over Arizona State. Goff spreads the ball around to a variety of targets with six different Bears registering at least 36 catches and 460 yards. Big-play threat Bryce Treggs leads the way with 813 yards on 41 catches (19.8-yard average), while the 6-foot-3 Kenny Lawler (47 catches, 583 yards, 10 TDs) has emerged as a solid red zone option.
Cal hasn’t played in a bowl or had a winning season since 2011. The winning season is already locked up, but to win a bowl game for the first time since the 2008 Emerald Bowl, the Golden Bears will need to play at a high level defensively to handle Air Force’s triple option.
Cal was 104th nationally in rush defense, allowing 203.5 yards per game, and 109th nationally in total defense. It was the team’s poor defense that made the season go south after a 5-0 start.
Cal lost four straight to Utah, UCLA, USC and Oregon, but rallied with late-season wins over Oregon State and Arizona State to reach the postseason.
But none of those teams can run the ball like Air Force. The Falcons rushed for an average of 321.8 yards per game on 5.48 yards per rush. With 1,009 yards on the season, Jacobi Owens leads the way for Air Force while quarterback Karson Roberts (674 yards) and the speedy Timothy McVey (397 yards) lead the team with nine rushing touchdowns apiece.
Roberts doesn’t throw the ball a lot, but when he does he looks for Jalen Robinette and senior Garrett Brown (26 catches, 534 yards, TD). The Falcons use Robinette (21 catches, 572 yards, 4 TDs), a 6-foot-4, 215-pound junior, to stretch the defense. He averages 27.2 yards per reception.
After starting 3-3, the Falcons reeled off five straight wins to win the Mountain division. However, the Falcons dropped their final two games, including a 27-24 decision to San Diego State in the Mountain West title game.
Roberts may need to take a few deep shots to Robinette in order to keep pace with Cal’s offense, but the Falcons are far more likely to try to eat up the time of possession in order to keep the ball out of Goff’s hands.
Picks
Graham: We know Cal can put points on the board, but its biggest challenge will be staying disciplined enough on defense to keep the Air Force running game quiet. This is a tough one to call, but I’m going to go with the Falcons. Air Force 31, Cal 28.
Nick: It's easy to go with Jared Goff and Cal, but the Cal defense really can't be trusted. So I'm not going to trust it. Air Force takes a close one. Air Force 45-41.
Sam: One of these defenses will have to step up, whether it's Cal vs. the Air Force option or Air Force vs. Goff and the Cal passing attack. If Cal can build a lead, Air Force may have to go to the air. That won't go well. Cal 41, Air Force 35.
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Sam Cooper is a contributor for the Yahoo Sports blogs. Have a tip? Email him or follow him on Twitter!
