With the College Football Playoff National Championship Game just days away, it's time to take a deeper look at the two teams playing for the title on Jan. 11. We looked at the offenses and defenses on Thursday, now it’s time to focus on the keys to Monday's game on the whole.
Alabama offensive line vs. Clemson defensive line
Talk about strength vs. strength.
Alabama doesn’t rebuild on the offensive line, it simply reloads. Ryan Kelly, Cam Robinson and company paved the way for Derrick Henry’s Heisman Trophy-winning season while allowing only 20 sacks over 14 games. Henry has racked up 2,061 yards on the season and averaged 5.7 yards per rush in the process.
Henry reached the end zone in the Tide’s semifinal win over Michigan State, but had one of his worst performances of the season yardage-wise, finishing with just 75 on 20 carries. The Clemson defense could present a similar challenge. The Tigers boast the country’s 18th-best rush defense, allowing just 3.59 yards per carry and 124.4 yards per game.
Clemson’s stout defensive line is the catalyst to its success against the run, with ends Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd leading the way. The Tigers can get to the quarterback, too.
Lawson has 10.5 sacks and an FBS-best 23.5 tackles for loss, but missed the majority of the Oklahoma game with a knee injury. He’s expected to return for this one, but even without Lawson against OU, the Tigers showed their depth and wreaked havoc all game long. With 18.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks, Dodd has also been a terror for offensive lines this season.
Deshaun Watson’s mobility
It’s been pointed out ad nauseam this week that Alabama has struggled against teams with mobile quarterbacks. Alabama doesn’t lose too often, but in recent years, teams with scrambling quarterbacks – Chad Kelly (Ole Miss), Cardale Jones (Ohio State), Trevor Knight (Oklahoma), Nick Marshall and Johnny Manziel, for example – have been the Tide’s kryptonite.
Deshaun Watson certainly fits that mold.
Watson has 1,032 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground and has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in five of his last six games, including 145 on 24 carries in the win over Oklahoma. He can also extend plays as well as any quarterback in the country.
Alabama, which boasts the top rush defense in the country, hasn’t allowed an opposing quarterback to rush for more than 30 yards in a game this season (Middle Tennessee’s Brent Stockstill had 29!), shutting down some pretty dangerous dual threats in the process.
Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott? 14 yards on 26 carries. Tennessee’s Josh Dobbs? 16 yards on 19 carries. But Watson is a step above those guys, and whether it’s on designed runs or scrambles, Alabama’s ability to keep him contained will be huge. If Alabama can do that, Watson will be forced to make big throws from the pocket.
Third down efficiency
The sheer skill level of the athletes on Alabama’s defense shows up in a lot of ways. Third down defense is one of them. The Tide have the best rush defense in the country, so its opponents are forced into third-and-long situations quite often. That translates into stopping opponents on third down 72.3 percent of the time.
On the other side, Clemson's offense is 13th-best at converting on third down, doing so on 47.7 percent of its opportunities. Watson, with his uncanny ability to extend plays using his legs, is deadly in these circumstances, but Alabama has the athletes to chase him down. Watson is also extremely accurate on the run and has the very reliable Artavis Scott to count on at wideout.
As good as Alabama's defense has been on third down, Clemson's has been better. Opponents have had 202 third-down attempts against Clemson and have converted only 52 times – a 25.7 percent clip. Alabama is on the bottom end of teams nationally in third down offense (36.2 percent), so it's important for the Tide to be effective on first down to create a more managable down-and-distance on third down.
Turnovers
Yes, Clemson is undefeated, but the Tigers have reached this point despite a propensity to turn the ball over. Clemson has lost 26 turnovers on the season – 12 fumbles and 14 interceptions. That mark is tied for No. 113 in the nation.
Deshaun Watson has played brilliantly all season, but if he has one weakness, it’s his tendency to try to make the big play when the better choice is probably to just throw the ball away. We saw this toward the end of the first half against Oklahoma when Watson tossed one up into the end zone for an interception, costing his team a probable three points before halftime. He cannot make the same mistake against a team like Alabama that has forced 26 turnovers on the season and also leads the nation in sacks (50).
In its final six games, Alabama turned the ball over just three times (Clemson has 12 turnovers in that same stretch) on offense, with quarterback Jake Coker going four straight games without throwing a pick. Watson has thrown at least one interception in four of Clemson’s last five games.
Red zone efficiency
Alabama has allowed its opponents to reach the red zone only 25 times this season in 14 games, so when Clemson gets there, it has to capitalize. The Tigers stalled in the red zone three times against Oklahoma, twice settling for field goals and turning it over on a Watson interception another time. That can’t happen against Alabama.
On the whole, Clemson has done well in the red zone, scoring on 49 of 55 opportunities and reaching the end zone on 67.3 percent (33/49) of those scores.
Alabama’s red zone offense produces at a similar rate, scoring touchdowns on 33 of its 48 red zone scores. However, the Tide have come up empty on 11 red zone tries.
Clemson’s defense has allowed opponents to score on 32 of 39 red zone chances – 22 touchdowns (13 rushing, nine passing) and 10 field goals. By comparison, the Alabama defense has given up points on 20 of 25 red zone chances – 11 touchdowns (five rushing, six passing) and nine field goals.
For more Clemson news, visit TigerIllustrated.com.
For more Alabama news, visit TideSports.com.
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Sam Cooper is a contributor for the Yahoo Sports blogs. Have a tip? Email him or follow him on Twitter!
