Fade these picks. A 3-6-1 Week 5 makes us 19-28-3 on the season. Brutal. Brutal. Brutal.
Cincinnati (-3) at UConn, 11:30 a.m. ET: Yes, there’s a game that kicks off before Noon ET on Saturday. UConn’s loss to Houston last week was the first time the Huskies played a game that wasn’t within a possession. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is reeling from a 25-point loss to South Florida. We’re going with the Bearcats to bounce back.
TCU (-28.5) at Kansas, Noon ET: Sorry Kansas, there’s no reason for optimism right now. Texas Tech had two quarterbacks throw for four touchdowns each against the Jayhawks in Week 5 and KU couldn’t get more than 19 points against a Red Raider defense that is flat-out bad. Ryan Willis is starting at QB for KU this week, but his presence won’t be enough to repeat the tough game KU gave the Horned Frogs in 2015.
Notre Dame (+2.5) at NC State, Noon ET: Who would have seen this line coming a few weeks ago? North Carolina State is 61st in the country in pass defense while Notre Dame is 15th in passing offense. Much has been made of Notre Dame’s defensive struggles, but we’re not confident NC State has the offense to take advantage.
Georgia Tech at Pitt (-7), 12:30 p.m. ET: Which rushing defense will succeed? Pitt is fourth in the country in rushing defense while Georgia Tech is 31st. But the Panthers give up just 2.36 yards a carry while Georgia Tech is letting opponents gain 3.83 yards per rush. Pitt should be able to slow down GT’s option attack enough while running back James Conner has a big day.
Bowling Green at Ohio (OVER 61.5), 2 p.m. ET: This pick is a sub for LSU and Florida as that game got postponed. Yes, Bowling Green has been awful this season, but these two teams are in the top 10 in plays per game. Each team runs 84 plays per game and given that the Falcons have allowed 77 points twice this season, we’re thinking this one could take a while.
Tennessee at Texas A&M (-7), 3:30 p.m. ET: We’re predicting that this is the week Tennesse’s undefeated run comes to an end. So, of course, the Vols will likely pull off another great second-half comeback to steal the win. Or at least the backdoor cover. Texas A&M’s stout defensive front should maul the Tennessee offensive line. And unlike Florida with quarterback Austin Appleby, the offense won’t disappear in the second half.
Purdue (+10.5) at Illinois, 3:30 p.m. ET: The Boilermakers are coming off a shellacking at the shells of Maryland, but there’s not much reason to have confidence in Illinois to win by double digits. The Illini had a third-quarter lead vs. Nebraska last week before giving up 21-straight points to lose 31-16. Excluding a season-opening win vs. FCS Murray State, Illinois has given up 30+ points in every game this season.
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BYU at Michigan State (UNDER 49), 3:30 p.m. ET: There’s no way we’re touching the point spread on this game, which has Michigan State favored by less than a touchdown. The Spartans lost in OT to Indiana last week while BYU’s defense has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde. The Cougars gave up fewer than 20 points in each of the first three games but have given up 35 (West Virginia) and 53 (Toledo) the last two. But the WVU and Toledo offenses are better than Michigan State’s.
Alabama at Arkansas (+14), 7 p.m. ET: This prediction hinges on Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen’s ability to avoid interceptions. Allen threw two interceptions vs. Louisiana Tech in Week 1 and hasn’t thrown a pick since. Alabama has picked off just three passes all season. If Allen can keep the streak going, Arkansas is going to keep it close.
Washington at Oregon (UNDER 69.5): Now that it’s been established that Washington has one of the better defenses in the country, it’s hard to see how this game hits 70 combined points. Oregon has (relatively) struggled so much in its past three games vs. Nebraska, Colorado and Washington State that it’s possible a QB switch could be made.
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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