A weekly primer.
GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE WEEK
OKLAHOMA at OKLAHOMA STATE (-3½) • 8 pm ET, ABC.
What's at stake: There is hate, and in-state pride, and 365 days of bragging rights, and all of those things at the front of the mind in any rivalry. Oklahoma owns an eight-game winning streak in the series — six straight since Mike Gundy took over in Stillwater in 2005 — and would relish putting the up-and-coming Cowboys back in their place with the best season in school history within their grasp.
The fact that the Sooners could also secure their ninth Big 12 title in twelve years is a nice salve for a season that promised even more. But Oklahoma State hasn't won an outright conference championship since 1926, and hasn't shared one since 1976; it's never been to a BCS game. A win would seal both, and confirm the Cowboys' decade-long rise from regional doormat to heavyweight. But considering how long it's taken them to get here, and how integral soon-to-be-departed stars Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon have been to reaching the next level, their final home game may be the biggest OSU has ever hosted: The opportunity to make another statement for a ticket to the BCS Championship Game may not come again for a long, long time.
Oklahoma wants: Going on at length about the Sooners' prospects for a big night offensively would be redundant: We're talking about an offense averaging 548 yards and 43 points per game against an outfit ranked 107th in total defense. OU's last two trips to Stillwater have resulted in final scores of 47-41 and 61-41. Key injuries notwithstanding, a big night for the offense is a given. The question is, how can the defense stop Oklahoma State from delivering an even bigger night?
So far, the most enduring image of the Sooner D this season is a flailing unit in flames in a pair of losses against Texas Tech and Baylor — both up-tempo, pass-heavy spread attacks that are nearly identical to (if not quite as prolific as) the up-tempo, pass-heavy spread attack they'll see from the Cowboys. Elsewhere, though, Oklahoma has been pretty good defensively: Including the losses, OU still leads the Big 12 in scoring defense and is No. 2 in total D. That's largely a result of pressure from the front seven, anchored by senior Frank Alexander, which ranks in the top five nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss — in four games against ranked teams, they've racked up a whopping 48 TFLs. It's a lot easier said than done, but without some fairly consistent pressure that takes Weeden out of his usual comfort zone in the pocket, the Sooner secondary is in for another round of target practice.
Oklahoma State wants: Offensively, see above: The Cowboys have not been held below 420 yards or 30 points in any of their first eleven games, and rank among the top three offenses nationally on both counts. Again, they run the same system that Texas Tech and Baylor used to rip the Sooners to ribbons, and run it better. Defensively, they're in line to be ripped to ribbons themselves.
For the most part, Oklahoma State has managed to mitigate the ghastly yardage numbers by forcing gobs of turnovers — 37 of them altogether, more than any defense in the nation, putting OSU on pace for more than any defense since 2003. As lethal as his arm his, OU quarterback Landry Jones has been fairly generous, too, serving up a dozen interceptions on the season with multiple picks in four different games.
Constants: Both defenses will hold up fairly well early on, before things start to open up in the second half. … Both quarterbacks will go well over 300 yards passing with multiple touchdowns. … Points, obviously.
Variables: Which defense brings the most pressure in the pass rush? … How effective is Oklahoma in setting up short-yardage situations for its Tebow-inspired "Belldozer" formation, featuring backup QB Blake Bell? … Which side flips the field with a big return?
The Pick: Last week's 26-6 win over Iowa State was Oklahoma's sloppiest offensive outing of the season, on the heels of an awful defensive effort in the loss to Baylor. The last time we saw Oklahoma State, the Cowboys were inexplicably losing to Iowa State two weeks ago, sending their national championship campaign down in flames, or up in smoke, or whatever incineration-based metaphor you prefer. Neither team is exactly roaring in at full speed.
As lingering concerns go, though, the injuries to Oklahoma's leading rusher (Dominique Whaley) and receiver (Ryan Broyles) cut a little deeper, especially on the road. Again, not that the Sooners aren't going to score plenty. In a game that's likely going to come down to one or two defensive stops breaking serve, though, both offenses need all hands on deck, and Oklahoma State has three of the best in Weeden, Blackmon and Joseph Randle. As much as the Cowboys have at stake, at home, that's a pretty steep margin of error for any shorthanded outfit to overcome.
SEC Championship: GEORGIA vs. LSU (-13½) • 3:30 pm ET, CBS.
I admit: I'm sold on the idea of Georgia dragging the Tigers into the dirt in a low-scoring scuffle. The Bulldogs bring in the best defense LSU has seen since out-kicking Alabama, 9-6, and LSU has no qualms about packing up the offense and letting the defense and special teams slug it out with anyone.
The thing is, the Tigers are built specifically for that type of game, and play it as well as any team in years: They may boast the highest-scoring offense in the SEC, but that's in no small part because they lead the nation in turnover margin and rank in the top five in net punting, in addition to the killer defense. No team in America consistently creates better field position or puts its offense in friendlier situations than LSU. Throw in its routine opportunism — members of the Tigers' first-rate secondary have scored more touchdowns on defense and special teams (6) as they've allowed through the air — against Georgia's "special" special teams, and the offense won't be asked to do much more than stay out of the way en route to the BCS Championship Game. As usual.
Big Ten Championship: MICHIGAN STATE vs. WISCONSIN (-9½) • 8 pm ET, Fox.
Mark Dantonio said he left roses in his player's lockers this week to remind them what's at stake here, and judging from ticket sales, they're not the only ones who need reminding. The Big Ten's is the only championship game this weekend between two teams ranked outside the top ten of the BCS standings, which is weird even by Big Ten standards.
From a strictly competitive standpoint, though, it may be the best of the lot — the last time the Spartans and Badgers saw each other, it was a back-and-forth struggle that came down to a Hail Mary on the last play in East Lansing, arguably the Game of the Year in the Big Ten or anywhere else. It's no surprise that both went on to lose the following week (Michigan State at Nebraska, Wisconsin at Ohio State, on another heartbreaking heave in the final minute), or that they both rebounded with 4-0 November runs to clinch a spot in Indy.
On a neutral field, fresh on the heels of crushing Penn State, with the No. 1 scoring offense and scoring defense in the conference, the Badgers are the pick. But it's probably the least obvious pick of the weekend.
ACC Championship: CLEMSON vs. VIRGINIA TECH (-7) • 8 pm ET, ESPN.
The first meeting between the Tigers and Hokies was not close, which says a lot about how far the former's stock has fallen over the last month: Since Oct. 29, Clemson has fallen from an 8-0 contender with double-digit wins over Auburn, Virginia Tech and North Carolina to a 9-3 has-been clinging to the bottom of the polls after double-digit losses to Georgia Tech, N.C. State and South Carolina.
In the meantime, the Hokies looked like a team hitting its stride in last week's 38-0 rout at Virginia, their seventh straight since getting thumped by Clemson in Blacksburg on Oct. 1. If the Tigers have anything left in the tank, that was one hell of a rope-a-dope.
Pac-12 Championship: UCLA at OREGON (-31½) • 8 pm ET (Friday), Fox.
Some part of me feels sorry for UCLA, a genuine "Bad New Bears" sort of outfit that backed into a big game so lopsided its own administration wasn't even willing to bother with the formality of playing it before tossing the head coach overboard. In every movie ever made, the Bruins rise up, play the game of their lives and carry Rick Neuheisel out for real on their way to the Rose Bowl.
In real life, they're a 6-6 team being outscored by more than a touchdown per game, riding four consecutive losses on the road by a combined score of 174 to 37. If Oregon's offense keeps the pedal to the floor, it may get close to that margin by itself. But even Chip Kelly isn't that ruthless.
Conference USA Championship: SOUTHERN MISS at HOUSTON (-14) • Noon ET, ABC.
I've been consistently skeptical of Houston's softy schedule during its run to 12-0. Frankly, though, Southern Miss' hasn't been much better, and at least Houston didn't mar its bid for the best season in school history with stumbles against Marshall and UAB. As a USM alum, I'm not holding out any hope that the Eagles will slow down the most prolific offense in America, but it's actually Houston's defense that lends the trip a distinct a whiff of doom: The Cougars have held four consecutive opponents to 17 points or less, including a pair of winning victims, SMU and Tulsa.
I don't like picking against the alma mater in its biggest game in at least five years — since its last appearance in the C-USA title game, also at Houston in 2006 — but in this case, I'm going to have to be pleasantly surprised.
MAC Championship: NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-3½) vs. OHIO • 7 pm ET (Friday), ESPN2.
I know you remember it like it was yesterday, but to recap: Northern Illinois came into this game last year with a perfect conference record, a top-25 ranking and a chance to set a new school record for wins. It went out with a freakish loss to Miami (Ohio) that extended its conference championship drought to 27 years.
This year, the Huskies come in riding a seven-game winning streak fueled by the most productive quarterback in the league, senior Chandler Harnish. But the NIU defense has left a lot to be desired — the Huskies' biggest win was a 63-60 pinball match at Toledo, aided by the Rockets' oblivious clock management — and Ohio has been one of the most balanced outfits in the country: The Bobcats rank in the top 40 nationally in every major category on both sides of the ball. Harnish will get his, but he can't do everything.
TEXAS at BAYLOR (-3) • 3:30 pm ET, ABC.
I doubt Texas fans ever expected be as openly covetous of a Baylor quarterback as they are of Robert Griffin III, but you can't blame them: As Griffin has emerged as arguably the best player in college football, the Longhorns are only just now getting around to making Case McCoy a full-time starter — mainly because he didn't do anything in an otherwise uninspiring effort to blow last week's gift-wrapped win at Texas A&M.
In fact, the Longhorn defense — easily the best in the Big 12 under first-year coordinator Manny Diaz, just as it had been under his predecessor, Will Muschamp — is the best Griffin will see this season. Given that that could have also been true of Oklahoma before Griffin dropped a 551-yard, 5-touchdown bomb on the Sooners two weeks ago, I'll take my chances on RG3.
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Matt Hinton is on Facebook and Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.